Bonds yields open at 7.90% vs. 8.02% on reduced government borrowing and OMO announcement

The RBI stated that based on the assessment of durable liquidity requirements going forward and the seasonal growth in currency in circulation in build-up to the festive season, it has decided to conduct purchase of G-secs under open market operations aggregating to Rs36,000cr in October 2018.

The Government of India announced on Friday that it would borrow Rs70,000cr less from the market in FY18-19 to meet its fiscal deficit target of 3.3%.

The news comes as a positive for the bond market as investors have been worried about rupee depreciation and rising oil prices. In addition, the government expects to adjust the lower borrowing with the expectation of increasing savings from small savings schemes where it recently raised rates by 30-40bps.

In addition, the RBI will conduct open market operations (OMO) to infuse liquidity into the system. The regular OMO purchases would keep the bond yields in a narrow range.

The RBI stated that based on an assessment of the durable liquidity needs going forward and the seasonal growth in currency in circulation observed in build-up to the festive season, it would conduct purchase of G-secs under OMOs for an aggregate amount of Rs36,000cr in October 2018.The auctions would be conducted during the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th week of October.

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रुपया 10 पैसे बढ़कर 72.49/$ पर खुला

गुरुवार को डॉलर के मुकाबले रुपया 2 पैसे की बढ़त के साथ 72.59 के स्तर पर बंद हुआ था।

सप्ताह के अंतिम कारोबारी दिन शुक्रवार को रुपए की मजबूत शुरुआत हुई। डॉलर के मुकाबले रुपया 10 पैसे की बढ़त के साथ 72.49 के स्तर पर खुला। वहीं गुरुवार को डॉलर के मुकाबले रुपया 2 पैसे की बढ़त के साथ 72.59 के स्तर पर बंद हुआ था। रुपए की शुरुआत भी मजबूती के साथ हुई थी। डॉलर के मुकाबले रुपया 19 पैसे की उछाल के साथ 72.42 के स्तर पर खुला था। वहीं, बुधवार के कारोबार में डॉलर के मुकाबले रुपया 9 पैसे की मजबूती के साथ 72.61 के स्तर पर बंद हुआ था।

रुपए में मजबूती की वजह

केडिया कमोडिटी के डायरेक्टर अजय केडिया का कहना है कि सरकार द्वारा अनेक प्रोडक्ट्स पर कस्टम ड्यूटी बढ़ाए जाने से रुपए को मजबूती मिली है। कस्टम ड्यूटी बढ़ने से रुपए में सुधार होगा।

रुपए की ट्रेडिंग रेंज

केडिया के अनुसार डॉलर के मुकाबले रुपए आज 72.49-73.24  की रेंज में ट्रेड कर सकता है।

इस साल करीब 14 फीसदी टूटा रुपया

इस साल रुपए में करीब 14 फीसदी तक कमजोरी आई है। क्रूड की कीमतें बढ़ने, ट्रेड वार, कैड बढ़ने की आशंका, डॉलर में मजबूती, घरेलू स्तर पर निर्यात घटने और राजनीतिक अस्थिरता जैसे फैक्टर्स की वजह से रुपए पर लगातार दबाव बना हुआ है।

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BSE gets SEBI approval to launch futures contract in Gold and Silver

Trading of these contracts will be launched on October 01, 2018.

BSE, Asia’s oldest exchange and now world’s fastest exchange with the speed of 6 microseconds, adds another feather in its cap by getting SEBI’s approval to launch delivery based futures contract in Gold (1 kg) and Silver (30 kg).

Trading of these contracts will be launched on October 01, 2018. Contract start day will be 6th day of contract launch month and last trading day will be 5th day of contract expiry month.

The commodity trading session will be from Monday to Friday 10.00am to 11.30/11:55pm.

Delivery center of Gold and Silver futures contract will be Exchange designated vaults at Ahmedabad initially and then expanding it Pan India in the second phase.

BSE provides investors with an end to end, integrated transaction processing, with services ranging across the spectrum, from pre-trade order management to trading, real time risk management to post trade clearing, and settlement through a central counter party mechanism along with a nationwide depository for facilitating the securities, transaction in a dematerialized form.

BSE, along with clearing corporation ICCL and depository CDSL, are the financial market infrastructure institutions in capital market.

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Forex Market: रुपया 26 पैसे की गिरावट के साथ 72.89/$ पर खुला

खुलने के साथ रुपए में गिरावट और बढ़ गई और यह 31 पैसे टूटकर 72.94 के स्तर पर लुढ़क गया।

रुपए में गिरावट का सिलसिला जारी है। मंगलवार को भी रुपए की शुरुआत गिरावट के साथ हुई। डॉलर के मुकाबले रुपया 26 पैसे टूटकर 72.89 के स्तर पर खुला। खुलने के साथ रुपए में गिरावट और बढ़ गई और यह 31 पैसे टूटकर 72.94 के स्तर पर लुढ़क गया। इससे पहले सोमवार को रुपया 43 पैसे टूटकर 72.63 पर बंद हुआ था। डॉलर के मुकाबले रुपया 28 पैसे की गिरावट के साथ 72.48 के स्तर पर खुला था।  वहीं, पिछले हफ्ते शुक्रवार के कारोबारी सत्र में डॉलर के मुकाबले रुपया मजबूती के साथ 72.20 के स्तर पर बंद हुआ था।

रुपए की ट्रेडिंग रेंज

केडिया कमोडिटी के डायरेक्टर अजय केडिया के अनुसार डॉलर के मुकाबले रुपए आज 72.31 से 73.01 की रेंज में ट्रेड कर सकता है।

इस साल करीब 14 फीसदी टूटा रुपया

इस साल रुपए में करीब 14 फीसदी तक कमजोरी आई है। क्रूड की कीमतें बढ़ने, ट्रेड वार, कैड बढ़ने की आशंका, डॉलर में मजबूती, घरेलू स्तर पर निर्यात घटने और राजनीतिक अस्थिरता जैसे फैक्टर्स की वजह से रुपए पर लगातार दबाव बना हुआ है।

रुपए में गिरावट की वजह

एंजेल ब्रोकिंग कमोडिटी के डिप्टी वाइस प्रेसिडेंट रिसर्च अनुज गुप्ता का कहना है कि ग्लोबल बाजार में कच्चे तेल का भाव 4 साल की ऊंचाई पर पहुंच गया है। ओपेक के उत्पादन नहीं बढ़ाने के फैसले से क्रूड में उछाल आया है। ब्रेंट क्रूड 81 डॉलर प्रति बैरल को पार गया है। जिससे रुपए पर दबाव बढ़ा है।
वहीं चीन द्वारा अमेरिका से ट्रेड पर बातचीत रद्द किए जाने का भी असर हुआ है। इसके अलावा बुधवार को फेडरल रिजर्व की बैठक में ब्याज दरें बढ़ाने की उम्मीद भी से रुपया कमजोर हुआ है।

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Rupee slips further, nears 73 against US Dollar

The rupee extended decline in the opening trade after crude prices soared ahead of the impending US sanctions on Iran and ahead of Fed meet.

The Indian rupee extended decline in the opening trade after crude prices soared ahead of the impending US sanctions on Iran and ahead of Fed meet. The rupee opened lower by 26 paise at 72.96 per dollar. The 10-year gilt yield stood at 8.13%, below its previous close of 8.12%. Currently, the rupee is trading at 72.83/$.

The rupee is down more than 13% against the US Dollar so far this year.
On the international front, Crude oil is at its four-year high levels on Tuesday with WTI November futures trading 0.1% up, while Brent for November delivery was trading 0.2% up. This is especially due to a decision of OPEC members to resist production hike to offset Iran sanctions. OPEC and its cartel in a meeting at Algiers over the weekend concluded with a decision to refrain from an urgent boost in production, despite Trump's call to bring down prices. OPEC members said they would hike output only in the event that customers wanted more cargoes. The US government from November 04 will target Iran’s oil exports with sanctions. The Us government is putting pressure on governments and companies around the globe to trim imports from Tehran.

On Monday, the Indian currency ended lower by 43 paise at 72.66/$. The local unit had hit a high of 72.96 and a low of 72.78.

The Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) reference rate for the dollar stood at 72.69 and for Euro stood at 85.25. The RBI’s reference rate for the Yen stood at 64.61; reference rate for the Great Britain Pound (GBP) stood at 94.99.

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Japan, China seek to restart FX swap line in sign of warming ties - Kyodo

TOKYO - Japan and China are in talks to resume a currency swap arrangement between their central banks worth about 3 trillion yen ($27.2 billion), Kyodo News agency reported on Tuesday.

The resumption of the swap agreement represents a thaw in relations between the world's second- and third-largest economies, which soured in recent years due to territorial disputes and tensions over Japan's wartime history.

A Japanese finance ministry official confirmed the two sides were in talks but said the amount had not been decided yet.

Previously, Japan and China had a smaller currency swap in place, but it was allowed to expire in September 2013 amid a low point in Sino-Japanese relations.

Chinese Premier Li Keqiang flagged the proposed resumption of the swap agreement with Japan in May.

The Kyodo report said a deal would be announced at a financial dialogue to be held in Beijing this month, but the Japanese finance ministry official said it was more likely that it would come at an upcoming Japan-China summit.

Tokyo is trying to arrange a meeting between Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and Chinese President Xi Jinping in October and wants to use the renewed swap agreement as a symbol of cooperation, Kyodo said, without citing sources.

The People's Bank of China did not immediately respond to a faxed request for comment.

In case of financial turmoil, the swap could act as a safety net by providing yuan to Japanese banks operating in China and yen to Chinese businesses.

The swap was originally launched in March 2002 as part of multilateral currency swap lines known as the Chiang Mai Initiative, which was established in response to the Asian financial crisis in the late 1990s.

($1 = 110.4900 yen)

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Rupee surges to one-week high

The Indian currency depreciated to 72.96 against the American greenback on increased selling of the latter by exporters and banks.

The rupee surged to a one-week high of 72.96 against the US dollar in morning trade on Friday. Currently, the Indian currency is trading at 71.84.

The rupee depreciated on increased selling of the American greenback by exporters and banks. Also, the dollar's weakness against some currencies overseas on easing trade war concerns and a higher opening of the domestic equity market supported the rupee.

On Wednesday, the rupee had snapped a two-day fall and closed higher by 72.37 against US Dollar.

On the international front, oil prices were little changed on Friday after falling in the previous session as US President Donald Trump urged OPEC to lower crude prices at its meeting in Algiers this weekend.

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Rupee opens higher at 72.72/$, against previous low of 72.98/$

In its previous session, it had inched closer to the 73-mark, ending at a record low of 72.98 per dollar.

On Wednesday morning, the rupee opened higher by 26 paise, at 72.72 per dollar. In its previous session, it had inched closer to the 73-mark, ending at a record low of 72.98 per dollar. Surging crude prices and trade war tensions were reportedly weighing in on the rupee, which fell more than 1% in the last two days.

The trade war between the world’s largest economies has escalated. US President Donald Trump announced his decision to levy new charges on $200bn worth of Chinese goods, bringing most of Chinese imports under the tariff ambit. China, meanwhile, retaliated, adding $60bn of US products to its import tariff list.

Yesterday too, in its opening trade, the rupee rose marginally, but it pared its gains in the latter half, closing at fresh record lows.

This year, the rupee has plummeted by over 13.05%. However, the IMF insists that the rupee has depreciated only 6-7% this year, after adjusting it for inflation.

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India`s struggle to defend rupee shifts focus to rate hikes

MUMBAI  - Investors have increased bets that India's central bank will need to raise interest rates at least two more times this year to shore up the battered rupee after authorities' previous efforts to defend the currency failed to sway markets.

The government's latest measures to support the rupee announced last week were particularly underwhelming for market participants, who have since increased bearish positioning on the currency.

At the same time, policymakers' failure to stem the rupee's slide using central bank intervention and other means over the past month has shifted investor focus to the need for interest rate hikes to do the job.

Since August, money markets have gone from pricing this year's third 25 basis point RBI rate hike to pricing a fourth.

Rate hikes "will be far more effective to bring down the premium investors are demanding from ... India," said Jahangir Aziz, head of emerging market economics research at JP Morgan, who now expects two more hikes instead of one.

India's rupee has been punished for the country's widening trade gap and swept into the broader emerging market turmoil caused by rising U.S. interest rates and an escalating U.S.-China trade conflict. It is Asia's worst performing currency this year.

Heavy central bank interventions have not meaningfully slowed the weakening trend and administrative steps announced by the government late last week to reduce domestic dollar demand were met with more rupee selling.

Most of the money market repricing has come on the back of a slowdown in the RBI's currency interventions in recent months.

Data shows RBI spent $6.2 billion defending the rupee in June. This eased to $1.8 billion in July when markets stabilised, and is estimated to have remained around $2 billion in August despite renewed market volatility.

Traders believe intervention picked up in September as the RBI tried to protect the rupee from slipping past the 73 dollar level. The rupee touched a record low of 72.92 mark and traded at just above 73, some 13 percent lower year-to-date.

Since April, the RBI is believed to have spent $20-25 billion to defend the rupee, yet the currency has continued to weaken.

Grapghic: India's rupee suffers amid broader EM turmoil https://reut.rs/2MHDbxp

"The RBI needs to be more tactical in intervening," said A. Prasanna, chief economist at ICICI Securities Primary Dealership in Mumbai, who also expects 50 basis points of hikes by December.

Prasanna warned, however, that taking the foot off the pedal completely could backfire as depreciation expectations could become self-fulfilling.

A senior government official early last week said a rate hike might be on the cards, in a radical change of tack from government officials who previously complained about RBI hikes.

The RBI and finance minister's office did not comment for this story.

UNDERWHELMING

Over the past month, the three-month overnight indexed swap rate has risen 50 basis to 7 percent, suggesting markets are pricing in a total 50 basis points increase in RBI rates by December.

This week alone, it has risen five basis points, implying pricing for a 25 basis point hike has increased by 20 percent, after the government's latest steps to reduce a local scramble for dollars failed to stop the rupee's decline.

On Friday, Finance Minister Arun Jaitley said India would cut "non-necessary" imports, ease overseas dollar borrowing restrictions for manufacturers and relax rules around banks raising masala bonds, or rupee-denominated overseas bonds.

Disappointing investors was the absence of an announcement about Non-Resident India (NRI) bonds, which would tap into the savings of the wealthy Indian diaspora, a measure taken during currency crises in 1998, 2000 and 2013 with good results.

In the initial market reaction, the one-month non-deliverable forward rupee rate traded offshore rose as high as 73.08 to the dollar on Monday, about half a percent weaker than the onshore spot rate. That compares with an average spread of 30 basis in September, 26 basis points in August and 16 in July.

The widening spread indicates an increasingly bearish outlook for the rupee.

"Investors may start pricing in more aggressive tightening in India after recent measures failed to stem the currency weakness," ING Asia economist Prakash Sakpal said.

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Capitalstars update :Rupee opens lower in early trade against dollar

The dollar rose against a basket of major currencies overseas amid reports that Washington was about to announce a new round of tariffs on Chinese imports, setting the stage for possible reprisals by Beijing.

The Indian rupee opened lower by 80 paise against US Dollar, even as the government announced several measures to defend the currency. Currently, it is trading at 72.65 per dollar.

On the economy front, the government on Friday announced an array of steps, including removal of withholding tax on Masala bonds, relaxation for foreign portfolio investors and curbs on non-essential imports to contain the widening current account deficit (CAD), which has widened to 2.4% of GDP in April-June, and check the rupee’s fall against the dollar.

The dollar rose against a basket of major currencies overseas amid reports that Washington was about to announce a new round of tariffs on Chinese imports, setting the stage for possible reprisals by Beijing.

On Friday, the Indian currency ended higher by 34 paise at 71.84/$.

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