2016 ~ Forex Trading Tips

UnknownMay 18, 2016Forex Trading Tips No comments

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EUR/USD offered near 1.1280, EMU CPI eyed

EUR/USD lower, dollar buoyant

The buying interest around USD has been gathering traction after recent positive surprises in the US calendar and following hawkish comments by FOMC members (Lockhart and Williams), somewhat putting back into consideration a potential rate hike by the Fed at the June meeting.

According to CME Group FedWatch, the probability of a rate hike next month has climbed to 15% from lest than 5% yesterday, while there is now 30% probability of a rate hike in July vs. nearly 20% seen on Tuesday.

Adding to USD sentiment, the GDPNow gauged by the Federal Reserve of Atlanta sees the real GDP expanding at an annualized 2.5% in the second quarter.

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UnknownMay 13, 2016Domestic Forex Intraday, Domestic Forex Positional, Forex Trading Tips, Pound To Rupee No comments

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Indian rupee depreciates against US dollar - 13 May 2016

The Indian rupee depreciated by 0.03 paise to Rs 66.9000 against the US dollar on Wednesday as a result of increased demand for the greenback from importers in the midst of appreciation in the American currency overseas. Further, a lower opening at the domestic equity market also weakened sentiment of the local unit. Further, rupee depreciated due to revision of a 33-year-old tax treaty between India and Mauritius that can potentially impact foreign institutional investments routed through the tax haven.

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UnknownMay 05, 2016Domestic Forex Intraday, Domestic Forex Positional No comments

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Dollars Demise Dismissed For Now - 5 May 2016

Few things the markets are talking about.

Trading yesterday was not for the faint of heart. Global markets were shaken by continued weak growth readings in China and Europe coupled with the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) surprise decision to lower rates.

The various asset price moves were complemented by a significant reversal to the ‘mighty’ buck.

As we head to the open stateside, the mood is somewhat subdued, but investors concerns are the same as the market gears itself up for the granddaddy of all economic indicators, Friday’s non-farm payroll (NFP).

1. Dollars dominates proceedings

It seems that the dollar ‘bear’ can never afford to get too comfortable for too long. The recent pressure applied to the world’s reserve currency has been slow and persistent. A reversal in dollar positioning tends to quick, painful and unabated. Despite the above-mentioned reasons why the dollars rise, this week’s turn can also be attributed to further Fed talk.

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USD/JPY trades up +0.2% at 106.86, well above its 18-month low print yesterday (¥105.55). EUR/USD is down -0.1% at $1.1481, off an eight-month peak above $1.16 on Tuesday, while GBP/USD trades down -0.4% at $1.4490 after having hit a peak around $1.4771.

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UnknownMay 03, 2016Domestic Forex Intraday No comments

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The US just dropped the hammer on currency manipulation - 3 May 2016

The U.S. government is sending a message to countries it believes are manipulating their currencies.

A Treasury report targets five countries in particular: China, Japan, Korea, Taiwan and Germany. Each meets at least two of the three criteria that "determine whether an economy may be pursuing foreign exchange policies that could give it an unfair competitive advantage against the United States."

At a time when currency devaluation has become a major tool used by multiple countries to stimulate growth, the U.S. is looking to protect its own interests. The report is an outgrowth of the Trade Facilitation and Trade Enforcement Act of 2015, a bipartisan effort aimed at stemming the global race to the bottom.

The criteria to determine whether a country should be on the "Monitoring List" of countries using unfair currency practices are: a trade surplus of larger than $20 billion, or 0.1 percent of U.S. GDP; a trade surplus with the U.S. that is more than 3 percent of that country's GDP; "persistent one-sided intervention," defined as purchases of foreign currency amounting to more than 2 percent of the country's GDP in a one-year period.

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UnknownMarch 10, 2016Domestic Forex Intraday No comments

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DAILY FOREX UPDATE- 10 Mar 2016

USD-INR:

The Indian Rupee appreciated by 0.20 percent in yesterday’s trading session on the back of rise in risk appetite in the domestic markets. Further, FII inflows into local shares supported Rupee. Benchmark stock index 50 share Nifty Index increased by 0.62 percent to 7531.8. FII’s net bought stocks worth Rs 462.86 crores yesterday as per provisional data from NSE. However, sharp gain was prevented as weak trade data from China led to the concern over slowdown in world second largest economy.

EUR-INR:

Euro depreciated by 0.05 percent in yesterday’s trading session as investors remained cautious ahead of ECB monetary policy meet. ECB is anticipated to lower its deposit and margin facility rates and to increase month bond purchasing program. However, sharp downside was cushioned on upbeat economic data from Euro Zone.

GBP-INR:

Pound appreciated by 0.04 percent in yesterday’s trading session on the back of weakness in dollar and upbeat economic data from UK. UK Manufacturing Production increased by 0.7 percent in January from -0.3 percent in December. However, sharp gains was capped as Bank of England Governor Mark Carney stated that Britain exit from European Union may hurt economy and worsen risk to financial stability.

JPY-INR:

Japanese Yen depreciated by 0.56 percent in yesterday’s trading session as demand for safe haven declined on rise in risk appetite in the global markets. Further, disappointing economic data from Japan added downside pressure. Japan Consumer Confidence Index fell to 40.1 in February from 42.5 in January. However, sharp fall in Yen was prevented as market expects Bank of Japan to refrain from adding more monetary stimulus in upcoming meeting.

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UnknownMarch 09, 2016Forex Trading Tips No comments

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Live Forex Updates- 9 Mar 2016

USD-INR:

The Indian Rupee depreciated by 0.40 percent in yesterday’s trading session on the back of rise in risk aversion in the global markets. Weak economic data from China led to the concern over slowdown in world second largest economy. Exports from China fell by 25.4 percent from year earlier and imports dropped by 13.8 percent, imports remained weak for 16th consecutive month. Demand from oil importers added downside pressure. Benchmark stock index 50 share Nifty Index ended flat at 7485.30.

EUR-INR:

Euro depreciated by 0.07 percent in yesterday’s trading session on the back of strong dollar and as investors remained cautious ahead of ECB monetary policy meet. However, sharp downside was cushioned on upbeat economic data from Euro Zone and rise in risk aversion in the global markets. German Industrial Production increased by 3.3 percent in January from 0.3 percent fall in December. Euro as funding currency because of their nations’ low-interest rates get strengthen during risk times. In intraday Euro touched a low of 1.0992 and closed at 1.1006 against Dollar.

GBP-INR:

Pound depreciated by 0.35 percent in yesterday’s trading session on the back of strong dollar and rise in risk aversion in the global markets. Further, Bank of England Governor Mark Carney stated that Britain exit from European Union may hurt economy and worsen risk to financial stability. In intraday Pound touched a low of 1.4171 and closed at 1.4208 against Dollar.

JPY-INR:

Japanese Yen appreciated by 0.64 percent in yesterday’s trading session as rise in risk aversion in the global markets and escalating geopolitical tensions led to the rise in demand for safe haven. However, a sharp gain was prevented on the back of strong dollar and disappointing economic data from Japan. Japan Consumer Confidence Index fell to 40.1 in February from 42.5 in January.

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UnknownFebruary 24, 2016Forex Trading Tips No comments

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EURUSD Heading Towards 1.0950?

Key Points

Euro was crushed during the past couple of sessions against the US dollar, and it looks set for more declines.
EURUSD formed a bearish structure on the hourly chart, which was broken to ignite a downside move.
German Gross Domestic Product released by the Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland came in at 0.3% in the fourth quarter of 2015.
In terms of the yearly change, there was a rise of 1.3% in the German Gross Domestic Product (w.d.a).

Technical Analysis

The Euro suffered heavy losses against the US dollar recently, and it just got worse. There was a descending channel pattern formed on the hourly chart of the EURUSD pair, which was broken to pave the way for more losses in the near term.

The EURUSD pair is well below the 100, 200 and 50 hourly simple moving averages, which is a sign of weakness. If there is a break below 1.0980, then a move towards 1.0950 is on the cards.

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UnknownFebruary 22, 2016Forex Trading Tips No comments

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Rupee wilts in early deals..

After taking three day holiday, the spot rupee depreciated in early morning deals - with a loss of 16 paise at 68.63 as against the US dollar.

The domestic currency touched a low of 68.69, and is now down 16 paise at 68.63.

Meanwhile, rupee February futures have shed 12 paise at 68.66 per dollar.

The counter has seen trades of around 1,55,794 contracts, while the open interest has increased 0.3 percent on the NSE.

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UnknownFebruary 17, 2016Domestic Forex Intraday, Domestic Forex Positional, Forex Trading Tips, Free Forex Tips, Pound To Rupee No comments

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FOREX MARKET UPDATE- 17 Feb 2016

Trading the News: U.K. Jobless Claims Change

Despite forecasts for another 3.0K decline in U.K. Jobless Claims, a further slowdown in Average Weekly Earnings may weigh on the sterling and spark a bearish reaction in GBP/USD as it provides the Bank of England (BoE) with greater scope to retain its current policy throughout 2016.

Why Is This Event Important:

Following the unanimous vote to retain the current policy, signs of slower wage growth may encourage the BoE to endorse a wait-and-see approach at the next meeting on March 17 as Governor Mark Carney & Co. reduce their economic projections and turn increasing cautious towards the U.K. economy.

Expectations: Bearish Argument/Scenario

Release	Expected	Actual
Construction Output s.a. (MoM) (DEC)	2.0%	1.5%
Manufacturing Production (MoM) (DEC)	0.1%	-0.2%
Retail Sales ex. Auto Fuel (MoM) (DEC)	-0.3%	-0.9%

Easing outputs accompanied by the slowdown in household spending may drag on the U.K. labor market, and a dismal Jobless Claims print may produce near-term headwinds for the sterling as market participants push back bets for a BoE rate-hike.

Risk: Bullish Argument/Scenario

Release	Expected	Actual
Mortgage Approvals (DEC)	69.6K	70.8K
GfK Consumer Confidence (JAN)	1	4
CBI Business Optimism (JAN)	--	-4

Nevertheless, improved confidence paired with the ongoing expansion in private-sector lending may generate a stronger-than-expected job/wage report, and a positive development may foster a near-term rebound in GBP/USD as it puts increase pressure on the BoE to remove the record-low interest rate in 2016.

How To Trade This Event Risk(Video)

Bearish GBP Trade: Jobless Claims, Average Hourly Earnings Disappoint

Need red, five-minute candle following the print to consider a short GBP/USD trade.
If market reaction favors selling sterling, short GBP/USD with two separate position.
Set stop at the near-by swing high/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward.
Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit, set reasonable limit.

Bullish GBP Trade: U.K. Job/Wage Growth Exceed Market Forecast

Need green, five-minute candle to favor a long GBP/USD trade.
Implement same setup as the bearish British Pound trade, just in reverse.

Potential Price Targets For The Release

GBP/USD may continue to give back the rebound from 1.4078 as it struggles to retain the range-bound price action from earlier this month, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) breaks down from the bullish formation carried over from January.

Interim Resistance: 1.4910 (61.8% retracement) to 1.4930 (38.2% expansion)

Interim Support: 1.3870 (78.6% expansion) and 1.4000 pivot.

The DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows retail crowd remains net-long GBP/USD since November 19, with positioning climbing to an extreme in January as the ratio pushed above +3.00.

Retail FX positioning appears to be moving back towards recent extremes as to pushes to +2.41, with 71% of traders now long.

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